My views on future trades, past trades, the market and lessons learnt

Monday, May 19, 2008

SELL AUDUSD

When the 1hr closes under this trendline and then comes back up to test it around 40 we can sell (38 previous resistance)

Some good info on gold

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2006025&posted=1#post2006025

Friday, May 16, 2008

Forex Trade Calls. Forex Capital Management Calls.

Forex Trade Calls.  Capital Management Calls.

We are in a wild market.  Carry currency pairs are disconnected from S&P which means global risk management systems are drawing down which means liquidity is scarce which lends to the downward spiral of volatility until something breaks the chain ie. a large news event that straightens the direction of the market and gets everyone on the same page.

Crude has been the driver of most of the disconnect from what I can see.  Global risk systems play crude along with currencies as a hedge so when there are disconnects you can imagine large funds are drawing down as their risk models are blown apart.  As they draw down they lose credit and so the downward volatility continues.  So to restate the concept we are in a muddy time right now which I predict will be resolved during Housing Starts data released from the USA in a few hours.  It’s kinda like the electric shock used to restart a fibrillated heart.

Forex Trade Calls London 11:30am.

www.midwesterncapital.com capital management

Thursday, May 15, 2008

forex trade calls hourly breakdown

FOREX trade calls startup hourly breakdown is very bearish for the day.  A laundry list of news will keep traders guessing every hour today into the NY session.  Fair prices after this meteoric rise are near the 50% retracement from Monday’s low to Wednesday’s high.

New Range Scalper

We are trying out this new 5m scalp (like the 1m) on ranging pairs.
Still researching a method to predict when a range is going to appear and when a trend is about to start.

EJ scalp

This is a typical setup we take.
 
It was a easy 20 pip trade with the added bonus of that we got to add to the position. Note that this is NOT the same as averaging in which is what we do not recommend. The 2nd entry is always on the retest of the broken trend. Never go in heavy on the first position so you can save some lots for the 2nd entry.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

selloff underway? forex trade calls carry pairs.

If we look at ABC patterns, trendlines, and stochastics on all charts we see a very strong likelihood of a selloff starting very soon if it’s not underway right now.  Most pairs have a zigzag formation nearly completed and they are coming up to a resistance trendline.  Multi time frame stochastics are rolling over suggesting momentum has slowed on more than one time frame.

USDJPY setup weekly and 4hr forex trade calls

The weekly has resist coming around 50 area.  You need to connect on the 15minute chart to be accurate.  We should see strong resist from the 4hr td line retest before we ever touch the weekly line.  This should be a great area to hold short until an ABC move down forms; then cover.

Prognosis is sell on first touch until an ABC forms on the 5minute chart with a definable “A” wave down “B” chop wave sideways and a little bit up then “C” down equal to “A”.

Forex trade calls USDJPY trendline bounce

Forex trade calls GBPJPY long trade. Potential.

It looks like we will be going long GBPJPY soon.  Let’s allow a deeper pullback and a bottom formation in the candles before going long.  I’ll most likely confirm with td line break.  This might also end up being the end of our GBPCHF swing trade we made 2 weeks ago at the beginning of these blogs.

Forex trade calls blogs.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

UJ setup For Tuesday

Looking for a short on a bounce of the trendline. This is a 4hr/daily chart so there might be some spike past the trend. A 4hr close past the trend would spell trouble while a daily close would force us to close the trade. While this is a swing trade worth 200+ pips we wold take it as a scalp for 40 pips.

Typical EJ Scalp

We identified an uptrend all day on the 15min and dropped to the 5min and drew out pink trend line. Once we got a 5min close under this the trade was confirmed and we took our 1st entry short at 50. And then waited for a 2nd entry around 62 (which we never got)
 
Exit was a break of the 1 min down trend. An easy 10 pips after spreads and commissions.

UK PPI

Being a Monday we dont trade the GBPUSD breakout but there was PPI which acts as a catalyst for a breakout and boy did it work.
An easy 20 pips. Picture explains it all.

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Which pair to trade?

So how do you know what pair to trade?
Well the first chart is the pattern we saw on the GBPJPY and USDJPY. So pair do we take?


GJ or UJ or both?

On a high probability setup it's best to take the GBPJPY. The chart below shows why:

It took 15min to get 10 pips on the GJ and 30 mins to get 10 on the UJ. I Know what trade I'd rather be on.

More on this later.

Friday, May 09, 2008

1min Scalps

We took no trades today.
The start of the session we had EUR news twice so we had to stay out..
Also the trend was predominantly up all day, so it was better to stay on the sidelines.

There was only 1 real trade near the end of the session at 5am EST.

EURJPY Short

A 15min Trade looking on a 1min chart though

1. Missed the original entry short at 50 on the 1min break

2. We then got our 15min close under the 2 1hr trend lines

3. Waited for a pullback to enter the trade at (27 and 37)

4. Price gapped through the first entry and we got filled at 27

5. Price never got to the 2nd entry

6. Exit was the bottom of the 30m channel at around 00 and 05 was previous low

Only CAD news today

London - Still sold off on Frankfurt open and was a huge candle. Maybe need to start taking FF trades on a break not close. Also when the Range is 25 pips the breakout will be fast. Anyway short at 19 took some DD and then dropped for a quick 20 pips exactly.
 
No Eur scalps because News stuffed up everything

Thursday, May 08, 2008

Thur MPC Rate

Rate day in the UK and small chance of a cut. Snatch went long on rumours of a UK bank buying and it was easy as pie to get 10-60 pips on this trade.
 
Didn't take any scalps today.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Wednesday 7th May

London Snatch gave an entry straight off the bat. And gave a quick 15 pips. As you can see it retraced back (usually it retraces to the low point though for our re-entry) and then sold off heavy, most likely on rumours of a UK rate cut which I heard the night before.

We had no 1min Scalps during the london session.

NYThe range for NY was too big so I didn't even look at it. Gatersaw over at trade calls did a few scalps though http://forextradecalls.blogspot.com

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Monday 6th May 2008

Monday after NFP and a UK Bank holiday so I didnt even bother to turn up for London.

Also we dont take snatch on post NFP monday.

London Never-the-less we went long at the start of FF. Came back to the Highline bounced and went back to entry + a few and then fell -30. Taking the CAR trade after 2 closes inside did net +20 to the other side.



*There was a gap that needed to be closed on the short side from Asia and the short inside closed it

NY range was 92 pips and had ISM but got a short at NY open was good for 20 pips exactly.



Will starting posting on the 1min setups tomorrow. Going to concentrate on EURUSD 2am-5am EST and then USDJPY 5am-11am EST.

Back to Blogging

I'm back to trading full time and again will be listing my "Snatch" setups and how they went post trade.
 
I'll also be including screenshots of the trades.
 
On top of my 15m setups I will talk about my 1min scalping system each evening and how the trades went
 
For anyone serious about trading and looking for actual trade calls themselves check out http://financialworldmarketsmart.blogspot.com/. He is also trying to get a good solid group of traders together each day to bounce ideas and trades off of.

 

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