Wednesday night US GDP

Scratch came out as expected didnt flinch a bit

At night got a big candle (no reason) up on GBP stopped at Res and then saw a perfect doji and shorted. Next candle perfect reversal 20 pips; but I am still in have a larger target for the morning. If it couldnt take out R now it should for a fade over night and fall.

Wed Asian Sess

Had a sell signal at 9000 and 2840 market was at 8970 and 2820 bouncing off support so I went long and then woudl short at the levels at the top. After 1hr I pussyed out with a few pips and shorted then it jumped to 9000 and got to 2840. And then had I shorted there woudl have made 20 pips.

Also on the chf I went long 4 pips from the bottom cause I didnt think it woudl hit the bottom but it did,

Also I forgot I had stops in place and they got executed and stuff things up. Just generally trading hasnt been in the right mind set. lots of losses at the EUR/USD thing is ticking me off. Just taking trades that I am not sure about is actually ticking me off and screwing up things. I need to sort out my broker stuff to stick to the two i have and make it work use oanda for news. Also dont ever fuckign listen to anyone ever again.

Lesson: S/R B/O definetly do get filled; dont ever chase the trade; let it come to the entrys: THEN ENTER. NEVER EVER JUMP BEFORE, If it moves off well fine but that wasnt ur trade so its not ur trade

Tuesday FOMC and CC

CC 99 v 102 was expected to be bad and came out worse. But all morning from 7am gbp was up 100 pips, at 18:00 it faded and fell about 30 and then when the report came at 24:00 it spiked up 30 pips and then just fell and fell and fell as ppl dumped. I was in lot of profit at this stage but I didn't take. We knew there was bids at 2750 and as seen before it was strong. So should have gotten out at 2750 and then if you need to u can re-enter it only costs 2 pips to re-enter remember. And you can re-enter at a better price even. Not much risk with taking profits at support.

Then there was the FOMC rumour that it was hawkish in 4 hrs, USD was bought 100 pips. Minutes come out less hawkish then expected people dumped and goes straight up 100

Buy rumour stuff keeps happening

After the 100% reversal I shorted (long term) again but hit 4 lots, Also I didnt wait for the candle to close so got 10 pips worse price.
Anyway the fade didnt work; the euro went up, so still lost I think it was too late 4am and to fade after FOMC.

EUR g out (20) e out (-30) NY g out (40) in (30) e out (50)

Lesson: Get rid of positions when you have profit. Just take it! When tired take extra care to enter

Monday bank holiday

GBP moved up 130 pips from the morning nice and easy and at 12 faded 70

Holiday means 10 pips = a 30 pip move

no snatch

Weekend!

Best thing ever

If you find a good system, do what it tells you to do. Do not make trades outside of the signals. Don't think for one moment that you can predict the behavior of people and the markets. The very best you can hope for is to ride a trend. There's plenty of money if we can control our impulse to out-think the market.

Also was thinking have u noticed that all terrorist stuff seems to happen when the markets are just opening?

Dont see a terrorist attack happening on Saturday at 10pm?

UK GDP and Euro Short. Friday

GDP was scratch

Then I was short the eur (cause of 77) and it started falling fast so I tried to jump on the GBP short to. Never enter after a spike has finished and is about to reverse just because u want to be in the market thats just dumb. Also I didnt have a preplanned exit cause I thought it was going down.

Then problem: got stopped out and then re-enterd got stop and re-entered again etc.. so next time wait for the 15 min candle to close then re-enter on that candle if it looks good and if u miss the re-entry well walk away tomorows a new day who cares take the loss grow up
(it did fall 80 pips from top of reversal btw!!)

EUR g out (-15) in (30) e out (-20) in (35) NY e out (-20) in (35) c out (-25) in (40) out (20)

Lesson: Dont chase a trade. Wait for 15 min candle to close and then see see if you can fade it.

Thursday IFO and Durable.

IFO big rumours coming in that it was bad bad (eur was falling before it) came out expected and Huge candle up. And saw a whipsaw.

Durable was scratch

Then had a short after the news (rob too) and he got early i stayed in and then i still got out too early .. the e/u was the key should always let it come down and take out bids/offers Eur & Chf 20 pips away from it .. and it did come and hit them .. oh well

EUR gbp out (20) eur out (20) NY gbp out (20) in (60)

Lesson: Wait for a trade to hit orders/offers/supp/res/pivs

Wednesday Home Sales

Ok the rumour was sales are going to be bad, we all knew it so what happend was 8 hrs before usd weakened retraced 20 pips then 2 hrs before went back up spike on the news and on the same candle retraced and then fell 70.

Buy on rumour sell on news!!

Tuesday CAD CPI and yen tips

The yen doesnt follow USD weakness (like the other majors) but it responds greatly to USD strength. there is no retracements, anyway learnt never touch it ever ever again and from now on NO MORE non system trades..

Cad CPI -.2 V -.3 total scratch and I pressed Sell for some stupid reason (it was buy) but the headline came out .1 v -.2 so i got saved and spread was 15 I was up 4 pips but btw the time I exited -2, i got in way before spike but :-) good trade anyway .

Read a report about yen, when USD weakness does come into play Yen is going to be a great short because USD is so strong against it (artficially) it needs to correct.

Lesson: Move the oanda window into main. Only trade GBP and NY rules for the others. No more TA. (Fibs Piv S/R are ok)

gbp sort of (48) eur (20/50) chf (50) jpy (30) gbp (20)

CAD Retail Monday and THE yen trade

-.2 v .2 I was not 100% awake and ready. Reuters beat bloomberg but I froze and looked at my chart and got in (5 pips off bottom) so wasnt to bad then I was up 12 pips and went to close it but it reversed and I got -3. Whats happening is I get the number to fast and don't enter I check charts, trigger sheet then I get in. I need to close all charts on near screens and then just look at reuters and buy/sell and just enter asap thats it stop thinking., think once im in the trade.

I also didnt take a NY ses cause I thought it cant move.. actually i was just being a pussy.. u pansy.. go read that in the zone book and stop being such a women all the time.

All majors had USD weak but yen was at the days highs so i went short at the topish also nikray called a short..the other majors all went 50+ the jpy went 5! Maybe cause oil is up bad for yen. And there is some Iran shit again causing USD strong but GBP/EUR are all being strong 80+ the yen just hasnt followed it.I don't know but next time use multi pairs.

gbp 70 eur 20 ... chf 25 gbp 20 eur 20

Lesson: Dont hold down the ok button click and release fast. Close all charts look at the bloomberg and buy/sell.

Me not following rules

Looking back all my problems come from not following rules. When I get into a trade all my rules seem to go in the bin. And I just ingore them and get emotionally attached to a trade. I need to develop a CLEAR and CUT trading plan where I am not allowed to enter trades ever without consulting my plan only then can I enter. Plan is a list of all your strategys and also all you mistakes so just glance over them while you are in a trade to give urself a reality check everyone once in a while :-) good night.

Broke all my Rules!

Ok so I am in this mistake trade of mine short at 62 and for the next three hours the price wobbles around at 55-75.

The first problem was that it was a mistake so I should have gotten out with any profit or loss or BE. But then I kept it, if you are going to do that clear you mind and ask yourself would you have shorted here? got the answer! Anyway if you want to keep it then atleast re-evauluate the trade from a new point of view.

I sat there for 3 hours watching it, and I was late to meet bob so I was being impatient and then I just got annoyed and set a stop at 72 or 82. I choose 72 based on $ loss and time was looking for a short term trade. But should have been longer and had I used 82 I would have been in the trade for a 30 pip short and then later in the night 200 pip short move (which I think happened just to punish me even more!)

EUR gbp out (45) NY eur out (35) in (20) out (20) chf out (30) in (20)

Lessons: Im not going to repeat old rules. Stop based on charts NOT $s. Not allowed to go out before/after a trade.

UK Retails Sales Thursday

Had UK Retail Sales at 6:30 I got home from Bobs after a few at around 6pm and started setting up, I had a new Bloomberg so was a bit all over the place.

-.3 v .2 I had everything ready to go but Retuers window was on top and my windows were clogged up and wasnt prepared so I missed all the calls and then I went short at the bottom for some reason. I'll talk about the trade in the next post.

Went to hemmes and had the Bille Cart Rose 1999 – very fruity and sharp with some nutty taste, meant to be the best rose after dom/krug. I prefer the Luarent-perrier rose, much smoother and has less “tang” Also the tataki was excellent to.

Eur gbp 15 eur 15 NY gbp 25 euro 20 chf 45 jy 40

Lesson: Ready 15 mins before. If you miss it dont get in late. If make a mistake get out.

Crazy Wednesday

What a crazy day. Back really hurts, should go get that checked out, but by the time I awake the only thing open is 7/11. Anyway back to trading, everyone waiting for CPI; market was chilled out, no volume, but had Euro gbp short 30 pip.

Rob got into a cute long before CPI so already had one lot in.

CPI core 0.2 vs 0.3 gave a buy. The consensus was all over the place 2-3 I decided to trade all numbers except maybe .3 because this report is SOO important. Got a good 65 pip spike on it. So my triggers were right. I got out a bit early/late I got out halfway on the retrace. Didnt think .1 was enuff for a clear and sustained blah blah

SNS stuffed up and Tom stuffed up and called a short also.

Didnt really have a dawdle effect; 3 candles at most and no follow through with other pairs. Although the gbp did reverse 40 pips step by step at 1am

ny gbp out (-10) in/out (100+) eur out (-20) in/out (90) jpy out (17)

Some dude sent me this today funniest chart I have ever seen in my life Crazy1 & Crazy2

Lesson: Get out at top of spike or stay in for the retrace dont pussy out halfway

Big Tuesday - UK CPI & US PPI TICs

CPI -.1 v 0 SNS faster (spread 15) shorted, got ok fill. Held for 30 mins (while it dawdled was also -ive pips) waited for it to come down and hit the pivot and it did that so I got out (4 pips from bottom) Nice 17 pips. It retracted 100% after this. (to general trend of the day) Also because the deviation was not big there was no chance of a retard, get in and get out and hold on a lil longer cause its the GBP so it needs time but dont add more positions unless its a Big deviation.

PPI -.3 v .2 Felix was screwing around with the SNS and it messed up my trade it went up 70 odd pips totally missed it cause was not paying attention.

TICs -75B v -65b reuters faster; GOOD for USD. Spike down and retraced in the same candle and then just marched up and continued going up. No idea. there was a 7B revision and day trend was up; TIC is a shit trading report, like Tom said this report sucks. Use it for a NY sess! Lost 20 pips on this. Was positive for 2 pips!

Took a Nikray long before PPI but screwed up my TPs and I got out too early he was 70+. Also took my own long when I had 7 15m candles dawdling at the bottom piv after news (same with GBP)

Rob said there is offers at 8975 which I saw got rejected and all 4 pairs had been stopped near pivots and were just dawdling (like before) so I went short at 8960 it went back to 75 and took 10 15m candles before it started falling. So in hindsight let it dawdle before jumping the gun ok.
It fell to 8937 pivot and then bounced 10; came down again but the JPY and CHF werent following through so I exited 1 pip from bottom! it then went up!

I didnt follow any NY rules today for some reason I didnt think it could make it that far down/up (AGAIN stupid me!!!) Currencys can move ok!! especially after news like today

ny eur 43 - ny jpy 27 - ny chf 30 - ny gbp 30

Anyway these End Of Day reversal trades seem to be working nice for atleast 20 pips. never get greedy on them ok, keep watching the dawdle effect.

Lesson: Remove all TP/SL before news. Be prepared 5 min before ALL. Lockdown your office. Watch Revisions.

Monday No news

Took the day off and had dinner and drinks with tonight at Cafe Sydney, was a good break. Had a Loius Roederer 2000 was ok, bit nutty def not worth the price; Veuve non-vintage is better.

There was a few setups. Nothing major.

EUR gpb sell 20 (outside)
NY gbp sell 20 (outside) buy 70 (inside)
NY chf buy lost (outside 35 (inside)

Lesson

Don't ever trade when you're High, Hungover, Angry!

Take advantage of terrorists

Ok having reflected on the terrorist crap I realised I need to capitalise on this next time. Any terror thing always effects one country first and may or may not effect others. In this case it was UK and possibly US and Europe. The pound should have weakened and the USD to because the attack was aimed at US. But it didn't because it was viewed as a safe haven, but how was I to know. So to take advantage of this:

1. Identify key countries effect and involved

2. Do NOT take long positions in these currencys

3. Find a suitable cross against a country that IS NOT effected at all and trade versus that.

4. In this case it was the JPY. Japan was not effected.

5. If the terrorist has nothing to do with Europe then take it against the CHF.

6. The reaction may not be instant, once an event is anounced keep an eye out for it all day. Other issues may trigger the currency collapse (airlines cancelling flights)

STOP LISTENING TO PPL

Dont listen to anyone anymore on their view on anything, only listen to hard cold facts. No more opinions. Even you (me) stop thinking USD has to weaken, if the charts shows it weaking it is, if not its not.

It can go up or it can go down, you have your gold if it goes weak so stop trying to make FX money from a weak USD. You don't care where it is in 4 weeks time ok. Trade what you see not what you believe!

Pivot Tip

If it can't break an pivot and on a 15min 2-3 candles form under it. Its a good chance to fade it. After a big move into the pivot

Pivots get broken on big solid moves, NOT on consildation under it and then push up.

Retail Sales

Expected was 0.5 and we had a tip it was going to be bad (so I was waiting for a neg) it came out at 1. It was sort of a small sell trigger but I didnt take it I was shocked by the positive. GBP spiked 60 pips.

Also missed some good trades 200pip cause I don't know I wasn't concentrating robs stupid chat is wasting my time. I actually don't know I think I was in a revenge mood and I was pissed off with those muslim bastards still. Oh and stupid girl issues to. . need to clear head

EUR g - 0 (outside) 40 (inside) 20/0 (outside)
EUR e - 20 (outside) 20 (inside)
NY g - 80 (inside) sort of
NY e - 20 (inside)
NY j - lost
NY c - lost

Lesson: Dont enter trades with preconcieved directions

Last trade of terrorist night

Well I picked a reversal finally! Also nikray called one and I bought the Eur fell another 20 pips so I bought some more. And eventually it bounced and returned. I got out with 10 pips. Should have bought the GBP it went up 50 instead. Also shorted the Chf and made 20 pips there.

I feel a lot better about the terrorist shit I learnt my lesson.

Lesson: Always trade the GBP.

New Set of Rules..

1. I had too much profits and this was making me trade big lots 5-6 instead of 0-1
   
   
2. I'd made a lot of money, next time at $10k you take a holiday go skiing alone for 1 day.
   
   
3. Any terrorist stuff be careful, dont trade or its bad for the currency EOS!
   
   
4. Stop position trades; max 2 lots, news trades only
   
   
5. NY & EUR: start taking them ALL of them.
   
   
6. Stop being a FX whore. I'm addicted to charts. Get a life literally.
   
   
7. Never enter a news trade before news

US Trade Balance

Trade Balance Came out as expected 64.8 v 64.4
We had a hint it would be BIG so I kept open my GBP/EUR/JPY trades.

So I had TOO many windows open so when the GBP spiked up I didnt have time to exit I was seriously ALL over the place and I was not able to close my GBP with -7 pips and go short (would have made 55 pips). Also didnt listen to robs close.

Anyway today was just shit with the terrorists and everything; was not in the mood to trade really ticked off.. they need to kill all the muslims and their kids, Bomb the whole bloody middle east will make the world a better place... stupid terrorist camel eaters. turn it into a car park, more on this later

Lesson: Dont be open before news EVER. Only trade ONE news pair. Only ONE window open. Dont let other trades effect news trade. Set stops on other pairs.

TERRORIST BASTARDS (UK airplane)

What a day.

I got back home and saw a EUR session buy on the GBP and I saw Rob had a buy and TD is going to be bad. Went long and it flipped so went long more and long Euro and then I saw the terrorist stuff had been foiled but it didnt effect the market much so we stay long but then it just fell and fell (each time a airline canceled flights to heathrow) on this news ...

It pretty much kept falling didnt stop until daily pivt (70 pips) and GBP (100pips). retraced half and then fell again and news couldnt bring it back up and then from then on it just fell and fell (200 all up). There was USD weak news everywhere but the market just clung to USD strong news and ignored all else. Reminded me of exact same as the Zarkawi death. I just had in my head there is USD weakness, I knew it could come down but wasn't expecting this big a move. If it wants to move it will move ok. After the news should have closed and moved on. In fact I didnt exit on the NY session rule stop to, because of the "TD" USD had to weaken. I didnt follow any rules. Seen new rules post above.

EUR and NY session rules made 330 pips today! Enough said.

Lessons: Market goes where it wants. NOTHING WILL STOP IT. Don't take a opinion. Go long or short based on your charts. They don't lie. Don't trade on tips, just use them.

UK Trade and a Eur Short

UK was a scratch

I then got into a short at 2870 on the Eur there was EUR Session long in place with a target 2880. I still went short at 77, 30 secs later it broker out and went up so I short more breaks out goes up again it goes to Rest at 2905ish and I short some more. Then came to 2870 then to 90 to 70 to 90 I got fed up and got out with about $300 profit. Had a chance to get out with $700 but got a bit greedy and didn't read the market well. There is also a huge euro long bias

Also EUR Session worked on the Gbp and Eur today. NY there was no trade.

Lesson: Lack of volume --> dont follow your targets just get out whereever.

FOMC no change

Wow, crazy crazy night, some people saying it could go up but most saying no change, had my finger on the sell button if they raised. They kept it the same and they did it 45 secs early! But I was ready it anyway was a no trade. It did shoot up 80 pips straight away really fast. And it hit a pivot was 47 where I was going to fade it and short but spread was 10 and I was a bit scared anyway it feel 70 pips in 5 seconds then! So should have shorted with small lots, but I did follow my rule so I am happy. After the fall it bounced back up and just messed around.

Overall good experiences, learnt not to trae when its no change! good night!

Monday Night GBP

Ok so the GBP topped out to 9099ish so I went short based on a NY session sell it failed to go out the top of the box so shorted on the inside, also had a Nikray sell and a few others in room calling sells to.

I got in at 9090 and then again at 9095 and 9110 again. My target was 9043 It slowly fell all night long at about 9055 I got antsy and started taking off profits. It hit a low of 47 but I was tired so I closed out when it broker out of the bottom. Eventually it got back down to 35, so the 43 target was perfect.

Lesson: Should have closed out at 47 was greedy for 4 pips. Stop being greedy. -/+ 4 pips and you exit from now on. Or be a man and hold over night.

Tuesday Clown!

Woke up early, stupid eye hurts.

 

Anyway some guy from GMT Forum started chatting to me, funniest chat ever. He said he was a news trader with $2m in funds he trades for someone else, then he started asking questions about a ECN and broker and he was upset cause he could not get filled on his 20 lots on the NFP! He then told me how he uses newsstrike because he doesnt want to spend the money to get bloomberg even though on his last trade he made $22,000

 

You just have to love people like this, its where my income comes from, idiots like this, I don't know if he was lying, but he sounded to dumb to be lying about it, I think he was serious. I was getting worried that my profitable strategy would die down but after seeing this clown, who is about to loose his $2m to me I feel so much better today!

 

Yay for the zero sum game!

GBP Industrial Production

Monday: bought some new pc gear for my router and pc issues, everything is in the office now

Had my trade ready to go using my triggers but then for some reason I used felixes which I didn't feel were right to begin with and then Tom had the same ones wierd. So i used theirs. Knowing it was for a spike not a trade.

2 sec before trade my phone rings!! Distracted me I missed my entry got in 10 pips late. Then my other phone starts to ring! It was ACM ! Bastards.

-.1 v .2 (76) so it spikes down (56) and then bounces straight up in 3 min (78). Oanda made the spread 10 so screwed me, no exit. Went to pre-release and then came to an anchor (66) then hung around for 15 mins then went up (82) in 15mins then finally 1 hr later it came down to 55 (anchor) slowly where it had to come down to! Got out 1 pip from the bottom!

Well done for holding it.

Lesson: Turn off phone. If you have spike triggers USE them as spike triggers fool, not clear and sustained directional move anchors.

Last weeks AUD rate rise

From last week. An expected rate rise in the market, I was set up for a sell if they raised rates 25 and buy if raised by 50.

Came out at 25 and went short 400k I was 10 pips in profit but I failed to close (moved real quick) and the market turned back in one tick and I was -1 for a few seconds and then just started rising up at -10 I thought ah leave it now. Several hours later I was hitting -40. But I was sure of a selfoff due to people taking profits. Got the sell off I wanted and I was -1 again but didn't close, ended -10 (fell 50 pips after that!)

Lesson: When you make a mistake trade, get out asap @ BE or wherever u can, dont try and make pips from a trade u should not have been in) if you want to keep the trade (re-evaluate it from an outside point of view)

... having said that I did re-evaluate and saw it should come down (and it did 50 pips) so 2nd mistake was I got scared/annoyed and closed a potential winning trade to soon.

Saturday night

Just did my homework for next week..
Need to be more prepared with the trigger sheets do it 1 hr before and put potential pips on it too. make sure desk is clean and working.

Still need to find a "decent" broker too.

I have narrowed down my systems I want to practice and use, I wont look at anything else in forex until I have mastered the following

1. News Trading
   
   - 500k
   - Spike trading
   - Retard Move
   
   
2. CET 123
   
   - 1k
   - Manually enter each trade
   - Just use the GBP
   - Also try silverex settings
   
   
3. Rob NY Session
   
   - 100k
   - GBP/EUR/CHF/CAD
   - Follow all rules
   
   
4. Grid
   
   - 1k
   - 1,000 pip
   - GBP bi-direction
   
   
5. RSI Scalp with BB
   
   - 1k
   
   
6. Eur Jim
   
   - 1k B & S E/U
   - TP = 10
   - SL = 40
   - Exit 6:30am

Friday.. CAD NFP and US NFP

Had CAD nfp and it came out 30k bad crazy trade, but it came out early 2 mins so i flipped for a second and didnt get in quick enuff, finally got in, but I bailed 1/2 out at a stupid time just before the "real" release time, I listened to tom, I should have seen it retrace more then a support level, I tried to get out at a good price instead of getting out when it retrace, always let it retrace and then get out, its better then picking the top.
when the 9pm came it shot up .. so i made some good pippage on remaining lots. .

NFP had tip before hand and then got the number at 113 v 130 (he was right) so a lil buy. Charles gave a 3 sec early call at 8950 also but my mouse slipped a bit (change the setting to slow, and always pick a buy or a sell) and the window moved, but I did get in on the GBP, got out too early though on 1/2 but kept the rest and cleaned out 99 pips at the top. it also gave NY session buy and the target was 9110 (50 pips away) but didnt take it.. and it did hit that target perfectly!

Lesson: Dont get out before retrace. Choose a buy or sell before.

Unexpected GBP Interest Rate Rise and ECB

There was about a 30% chance of a rate rise, but no one was expecting and I had a feeling so I prepared to buy in case they really did it. Got everything ready saw a buy signal 2 secs early then Oanda bloody froze at 8735 next entry was 8799 and I didnt take it it (because i thought that was the end of the move, I have done this before I get an opening late and dont take it cause im scared its already over, so I need to know how much each trade can move from now on) got to 8840 before it retraced a bit (had i known total move could of again got in) And then it went to 8910. Stupid stupid stupid on any unexpected rate rise its going to go up 100-200 pips just get in anytime!!

Euro rate rise came out as expected didnt move had a 1hr delayed reaction jumped up and then got in a good short didnt hold long enough though..

Really annoyed atmyself for the freeze still not sure if it was Oanda or my Pc. need to get a better PC, spending $3k on a good pc would have made me $12k on that trade!

Lesson: Close all other windows and fix news layout. Turn off other pc in house. IR cange will move 100-200 so get in anytime.